TALK 12. OUR INSURANCE PREMIUM JUST WENT UP

The Dangers of Dependence

There was a sense of gravitas in the room as we gathered to hear a truly qualified panel talk to us about the UK’s defence in the dangerous world we’re now living in. General Sir Tim Radford was the Deputy Supreme Commander NATO Europe when the Russians last invaded Ukraine, Tim was at the heart of the Alliance’s decision making and instrumental in pulling in new allies Sweden and Finland. Ana Juncos Garcia is a professor of European Politics at Bristol University, who specialises in defence and security, and Richard Graham is a former diplomat and MP who has sat on Parliamentary Committees for National Security and promoting Democracy around the world. Our host was the urbane Colin Gavaghan, Professor of Digital Futures at Bristol University’s Law School.

I write the day after our talk TRUMP & VANCE - WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE, WHO NEEDS ENEMIES? The NATO member states’ leaders have emerged blinking from a slimmed-down summit (supposedly to match the attention span of one of their number) and released a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to protecting each other via article 5, calling out Russia as the principle threat and saying they’ll return to cold war era levels of defence spending - 5% of GDP- in a decade. What they give to Ukraine will be included in their %. This was our panel’s minimum requirement from the summit.

We covered a lot of ground, the state of alliances, any need for new alliances, whether the NATO leaders’ declaration is worth the paper it’s printed on given Trump’s equivocacy and threatening of fellow members, the splitting of the US and Europe, if damage done can be reversed and the state of the seemingly not-so-special-anymore relationship, something essential to the UK but one that the panel recognised as also important to the US security and intelligence community.

We hung on every word. Tim told us that NATO was adapting and that whilst we might be squeamish about his methods and language, the spending to effectively deter Russia is only happening thanks to Trump. Ana pointed out the complete lack of comparative action in Europe with regards to Gaza.

How to pay for the colossal new amounts of weaponry? Richard called out the uptick in welfare payments for the economically inactive members of society and Ana warned of the raft of populist parties - many with sympathies to Putin - that are on the march and looking to take advantage of the situation as they are so adept at doing. All agreed that there must be a compelling national security case made to the British people by the Prime Minister in order to take the majority of people with the Government.

There was a sense that all wasn’t lost, economic might added to political will can see aggressors deterred. Tim likened the additional defence spend to our insurance premium having just gone up. Can the political will last?

THE TOOLBOX

Ana warned of the danger of depending on the US military and recommended reading ‘Underground Empire - how America weaponised the world economy’ by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman. It suggests the United States has turned the most vital pathways of the world economy into tools of domination over foreign businesses and countries, whether they are rivals or allies, allowing it to maintain global supremacy.

Richard recognised that whilst the current relationship with the US might not be ideal, is a lot better than no relationship with them. We might not like US tech companies dominating our lives but he sees that as better than tech companies controlled by the Chinese state. He’d also like to see a wider and more joined up national security strategy rather than the silos of responsibility that exist currently within the various sectors. And he suggested we all look for critical thinkers that resonate.

Tim suggested listening to the “The General and The Journalist" podcast, making sure we have balance in our lives - recalling how a Special Forces hero had introduced him to the concept of balancing out the extreme stress of their day jobs - and he encouraged the room to write letters to their loved ones, in the way soldiers do before going into battle. This stunned the room with its emotional power and simplicity.

As usual we spun a hoary themed playlist featuring:

• The Clash ‘The Call Up’

• Manic Street Preachers ‘Theme From M*A*S*H’

• The Waterboys ‘Old England’

• Edwin Starr ‘War’

• The White Stripes ‘Seven Nation Army’

• Black Sabbath ‘War Pigs’

• The Doors ‘Unknown Soldier’

• Jona Lewie “Stop The Cavalry’

• PJ Harvey ‘On Battleship Hill’

• Idles ‘War’

• John Lennon and Yoko Ono ‘Give Peace A Chance’